05
Jul
16

Australian Political Scene as of 5 July.


We’ve just had our Federal election and the result is uncertain, with neither of the major parties coming out of it with a majority.

It looks like a deal will have to be done with a string of independents to form a workable government. The major parties are neck and neck and who’s slightly ahead depends on the source of information.

Media outlets put the Liberal-National Coalition in front but at the time of writing, the official Australian Electoral Commission results show the Labor Party ahead by 71 seats to 67 (with two of the projected Labor seats and three of the LNP seats listed as “close”). It doesn’t seem like either will reach the necessary 75-76 seats to gain a majority allowing them govern without relying on an independent ally.

There will also be an increase of minor/independent parties in the senate, which will make for interesting times. The election also brought about the resurgence of our own “Donald Trump” in the senate, a woman echoing Trump’s ban on Moslems entering the country as well as other racist attitudes.
It’s possible that along with herself, she could have up to three candidates from her party entering the senate. So complicated is the senate voting system, the final make up won’t be known for sure for a few weeks.

While most commentators seem to think the incumbent Prime Minister will slip back into power, I’m not so sure, because:

1) support in his own party is deeply divided, with hostility towards him from a “Tea Party”-like faction. If stability is questionable within his own party, how stable could his government be?

2) I can’t see his Liberal/National party ever having a working relationship with the Senate. Reportedly he’ll need the support of at least 9 out of 10 independents within the senate to get any legislation passed, whereas the other major party, Labor, with the support of the Greens will need only two independents to come on board. The latter seems much more likely to provide a workable relationship with the Senate.

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Australian Electoral Commission count:

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-20499.htm

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3 Responses to “Australian Political Scene as of 5 July.”


  1. 1 Marleen
    July 6, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    This all sounds complicated but possibly good. I like the concept of creating coalitions that can really govern. I know from other countries that the coalitions aren’t always productive or positive, though. And I wonder how practically different it is from having different sorts of people within each of two parties. One party here seems to be self-destructing or even getting ready to erode our national moral psyche further (we will see how it turns out). And their overall purpose seems like it is not to govern — it’s more like to take up seats and get paid. (I suspect they have a strong faction or dominance that wants to shed what they’ve been doing and migrate to Libertarian, which is what most of their big money people have always been… that is, shed trying to look Christian or moral and commit further to not governing; but with a bonus draw of legalizing marijuana.)

    The other party has been bringing up subject matter that hasn’t been well addressed for ages without a vicious backlash. That’s via someone from a third party running among Democrats. So far, he’s not going to be the candidate though. And 5 July… I enjoyed the 4th. The 5th, humbug. The FBI has not recommended a prosecution over terrible handling of classified information (even in the face of lies about the information not having been classified). The reason is supposed to be that a prosecution on such a subject hasn’t been done before. Interesting fact: there would have been such a precedent (from before) had Bill Clinton not pardoned someone who was guilty on the subject in the 90s when the idea of computer security was new. The person guilty then was pleading guilty (to what for some reasoning I don’t understand is a misdemeanor).

  2. 2 Marleen
    July 7, 2016 at 4:22 pm

    http://www.salon.com/2015/03/12/the_george_w_bush_email_scandal_the_media_has_conveniently_forgotten_partner/ Hmmm. I suppose this is another example of not prosecuting. Maybe that’s why the 11-hour Republican questioners seemed so incompetent to follow leads on what she answered.

    I’m sorry, I’m probably acting like an American — talking about the United States.

    I actually am interested in what’s happening in your country.
    We get more news about the UK.

    The first teacher I had when I started back to college a few years ago was working on a PhD involving traveling to countries to learn about systems with multiple parties. But the class wasn’t on the topic.

  3. July 7, 2016 at 4:31 pm

    These days the political outcomes seem to be more and more similar whether in the US, Australia or Britain.

    It now seems like the Liberal/National coalition (right wing) will just sneak back into power by one or two seats, but they will have a very difficult job passing anything through the senate which is dominated by Labor and the Greens (left wing) with a significant number of independents made up of a mix of ideologies.


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